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Week 9 NFL Projections, Part II

November 6th, 2009, 4:06 pm by Matt Wiley

HE SAID

Detroit at Seattle

Stud: Calvin Johnson, WR, Lions: Johnson hasn’t played in a few weeks because of injury, but when he returns this week you still should consider him a top receiver. Don’t be afraid of using him against the Seahawks.

Dud: Julius Jones, RB, Seahawks: At the beginning of the season there was some thought that Jones could have the same impact as Cedric Benson this season. It hasn’t happened and Seattle’s offensive line is a mess.

Sleeper: Brandon Pettigrew, TE, Lions: With the return of Johnson, the middle of the field should open up and the tight end is always the best friend of a rookie quarterback.

Carolina at New Orleans

Stud: Jake Delhomme, QB, Panthers: Delhomme has 12 touchdowns and three interceptions in 10 career games against his former team.

Dud: Devery Henderson, WR, Saints: Henderson hasn’t scored a touchdown since the first week of the season and only has nine receptions in the past three weeks.

Sleeper: John Kasay, K, Panthers: The Panthers have had great success against the Saints and Kasay made seven field goals in two games against New Orleans.

San Diego at New York Giants

Stud: Eli Manning, QB, Giants: Manning has struggled with three touchdowns and six interceptions in the past three weeks, but the game against San Diego could be high scoring.

Dud: LaDainian Tomlinson, RB, Chargers: Tomlinson should not improve on his 3.4 yards per carry.

Sleeper: Malcom Floyd, WR, Chargers: With the release of Chris Chambers - Floyd will now settle into his role at receiver and have more opportunity.

Tennessee at San Francisco

Stud: Michael Crabtree, WR, 49ers: The Titans are too banged up in the secondary to hang with the 49ers.

Dud: Vince Young, QB, Titans: Don’t let the Titans victory with Young at quarterback cloud your fantasy vision. Until Young starts running more, he is not worth starting in fantasy.

Sleeper: Alex Smith, QB, 49ers: As noted above, the Titans are terrible on pass defense and Vernon Davis and Crabtree could have big games.

Dallas at Philadelphia

Stud: Donovan McNabb, QB, Eagles:  If you combine what McNabb has done with what Kevin Kolb did when McNabb was injured - the Eagles are the top quarterback in fantasy. Never bench McNabb in decent weather.

Dud: Roy Williams, WR, Cowboys: So Williams came out this week and declared himself the No. 1 receiver in Dallas despite not leading the team in any statistical categories. Williams is in a fantasy of his own.

Sleeper: LeSean McCoy, RB, Eagles: Just because Brian Westbrook is coming back, don’t instantly bench McCoy. Westbrook should see a reduced role.

Pittsburgh at Denver

Stud: Defense, Both teams: I wouldn’t expect any huge fantasy numbers in this game.

Dud: Hines Ward, WR, Steelers: Ward has never scored a touchdown against Denver and his former Georgia teammate Champ Bailey.

Sleeper: Willie Parker, RB, Steelers: Teams can’t grind down the Broncos’ defense with the run. It is the fast, change of pace runner who can hurt Denver. Parker has been a dud all season, but could factor into Monday’s game.

Matt Wiley, The Gazette

Things I learned from Week 7

October 26th, 2009, 6:19 pm by Matt Wiley

Actually, I learned a ton after Week 7 - of last season.  A year ago, DeAngelo Williams had two rushing touchdowns.  As you probably know if you play fantasy football - he finished with 18 rushing touchdowns and put any owner who had him into contention. The point is, all is not last no matter how bad your team has done up to this point - but it is time for your players to pick it up. Here are some likely candidates …

Carson Palmer has a few tough games, but a lot of favorable matchups the rest of the season.

Carson Palmer has a few tough games, but a lot of favorable matchups the rest of the season.

Carson Palmer, QB, Bengals - His five-touchdown performance against the Bears  was more likely a preview of things to come than a fluke. Palmer faces Oakland, Cleveland, Detroit and Kansas City in the second half of the season.

Hakeem Nicks, WR, Giants - He has scored a touchdown in four-straight games and, as predicted on this blog, emerged as the Giants’ top fantasy receiver over Mario Manningham and Steve Smith.

Justin Fargas, RB, Raiders - He ran hard when he got into the game.  He had 67 yards on eight carries and 23 receiving yards on three receptions.

Who are some players you recommend going forward? Who are players you are ready to get rid of?

It took six weeks, but that is more like it

October 19th, 2009, 7:52 pm by Matt Wiley
Maurice Jones-Drew asked for the ball, and produced when he got it.

Maurice Jones-Drew asked for the ball, and produced when he got it.

It’s about time. I was begining to think that was just a crazy year. But Sunday, Tom Brady, Randy Moss, DeAngelo Williams, Drew Brees and Maurice Jones-Drew all finally played well during the same weekend. Dwayne Bowe and Clinton Portis even showed signs of life getting over 100 yards each. It’s nice to see that all the predictions and time spent in the offseason projecting statistics wasn’t a waste. I expect owners of all these players to be happy going forward.

The biggest disappointments at each position:

QB - Tony Romo - Six touchdowns and four interceptions is unacceptable for a QB who was likely your first choice in fantasy. Other QBs are putting up monster numbers.

RB - Matt Forte   -  One touchdown this deep into the season wasn’t projected.

WR - Greg Jennings and Terrell Owens - Again, each guy has only reached the endzone once after eached averaged over 10 TD receptions in each of the past two years.

Biggest pleasent surprises:

QB - Joe Flacco - After throwing 14 touchdowns in 16 games last season, Flacco has 11 TDs in six games this year.

RB - Cedric Benson -We all new he would be the featured running back, but we didn’t

WR - Steve Smith (Giants) - He is on pace for 1,400 yards and 13 touchdowns.

Things learned after Sunday of Week 5

October 12th, 2009, 6:59 pm by Matt Wiley
Falcons running back Michael Turner should never be benched.

Falcons running back Michael Turner should never be benched.

I should never doubt Michael Turner. The guy is going to get 20 rushes or a touchdown in every game. His 3.7 average is not going to last.

The Seahawks are a different team when Matt Hasselbeck plays. Nate Burleson becomes a great fantasy receiver with Hasselbeck. All three of Burleson’s touchdowns have come in games that Hasselbeck has played.

Mike Sims-Walker plays a bigger factor on Jacksonville’s offense than I thought. The Jags were shutout after he was suspended for violating team rules.

The Eagles have a great offense - and maybe too many weapons - to know who to use. Philadelphia’s quarterbacks have combined to be near the top of the fantasy rankings.

Don’t track the fantasy numbers of the Texans in the first half, they get all their numbers when the game is already decided.

The one thing I already knew

Always give talent a second chance.  It would be great if the sports world was filled with high-class citizens and ideally players would never get in trouble with the law or have contract squabbles - but that isn’t reality. The one thing you can’t do in fantasy sports is let a player’s behavior alter his fantasy value. If you passed on Brandon Marshall (17 receptions and four touchdowns in the past three games) or Cedric Benson (leads the NFL with 487 yards rushing) because they were not solid citizens in the past - your fantasy team deserves to suffer.

Week 5 Projections, Part II

October 10th, 2009, 6:52 pm by Matt Wiley

HE SAID

Cincinnati  at Baltimore
Stud: Carson Palmer, QB, Bengals - The Ravens have allowed big plays in the passing game to the Chargers and Steelers so the Bengals could counter by going to the air.
Dud: Cedric Benson, RB, Bengals - The schedule gets a lot tougher for Benson with two games against the Ravens and one remaining with the Steelers. It might be time to trade him while his stock is high.
Sleeper: Bengals’ defense - I think they will play inspired after the death of defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer’s wife and could hold the Ravens in check.

Atlanta  at San Francisco
Stud: Tony Gonzalez, TE, Falcons - Gonzalez always seemed to play even better when matched up against another solid tight end. Some of his best games came against San Diego’s Antonio Gates. With all the hype around San Francisco’s Vernon Davis, expect Gonzalez to have a big game.
Dud: Michael Turner, RB, Falcons - San Francisco’s linebackers should shadow Turner all day and make life tough on him.
Sleeper: Glen Coffee, RB, 49ers - Coffee didn’t give the offense the boost that was expected last week, but don’t give up on him as long as Frank Gore is sidelined.

Houston at Arizona
Stud: Andre Johnson, WR, Texans - With Larry Fitzgerald on the other side of the field, Johnson could try to make a statement as to who is the best receiver in the NFL.
Dud: Either defense - This could easily be the shootout of the week.
Sleeper: Anquan Boldin, WR, Cardinals - The week off last week should help Boldin recover from a hamstring injury.

New England at Denver
Stud: Knowshon Moreno, RB, Broncos - An injury has given Moreno an opportunity to start earlier than expected and he probably won’t start a game on the bench again this season.
Dud: Tony Scheffler, TE, Broncos - It is time to realize this is a new offense and drop Scheffler in fantasy leagues.
Sleeper: Sammy Morris, RB, Patriots - The Patriots offense should look a lot more like 2007 with Fred Taylor’s injury. Morris should start getting all the goal-line carries.

Jacksonville  at Seattle
Stud: David Garrard, QB, Jaguars - The Seahawks’ defense has been bad and Garrard could capitalize on screen passes to Maurice Jones-Drew.
Dud: Torry Holt, WR, Jaguars - Mike Sims-Walker is the go-to guy in Jacksonville. Holt, who I was really high on coming into the season, has not lived up to expectations.
Sleeper: Nate Burleson, WR, Seahawks -When Matt Hasselbeck plays, Seattle is a different team and Burleson is a solid fantasy option.

Indianapolis  at Tennessee
Stud: Dallas Clark, TE, Colts - The Titans have allowed opposing starting tight ends to amass 20 catches for 236 yards and two touchdowns. Clark is averaging 91 yards per game.
Dud:  Rob Bironas, K, Titans - Field goals are not going to get it done against the Colts.
Sleeper: Vince Young, QB, Titans - If you think the Titans are going to lose this week to the Colts and next week to the Patriots - as I do - and enter the bye week at 0-6 - a quarterback change is imminent. Might as well pick up Young before someone else does. If you want a guy for this week take Titans reciever Kenny Britt.

N.Y. Jets  at Miami
Stud: Ronnie Brown, RB, Dolphins - Only player in the NFL with more than 70 carries who is averaging 5 yards per rush (5.1). He is the Dolphins offense.
Dud: Thomas Jones, RB, Jets - Not only has he not been able to get it going on the ground (3.8 per carry), he has two catches for 1 yard this season.
Sleeper: Braylon Edwards, WR, Jets - Expect to see a motivated player in Edwards after he was cast aside by the Browns.

After Week 4 it is always a good time to take stock - quick hitters

October 6th, 2009, 6:26 pm by Matt Wiley
Steve Smith, left, and Mario Manningham have produced for the Giants. Remember in the preseason when most people thought the Giants WRs were a weakness.

Steve Smith, left, and Mario Manningham have produced for the Giants. Remember in the preseason when most people thought the Giants WRs were a weakness.

The Giants seemingly have a new No. 1 receiver every few weeks. Steve Smith is the guy now, Mario Manningham was the guy two weeks ago. Eli Manning’s go-to guy is obviously the open guy.

Opponents of the Dolphins might not see the as much since the Dolphins try to control the clock and that could hurt their fantasy statistics.

San Francisco’s defense is loaded with guys who make plays. The defense has scored four touchdowns. In comparison, the Rams as a team have 24 points this season.

Philip Rivers can - and does - put up numbers against any defense. Never bench him unless there is 50 mph wind.

Even when Maurice Jones-Drew only gets six carries for 14 yards (why?) he finds the end zone.

Indianapolis does not mind playing track meets.

The bye week could really help the Cardinals. If receiver Anquan Boldin is healthy, the rest of the offense could see a boost.

Willie Parker should be an afterthought for the Steelers moving forward.

The season keeps going, and I keep learning (after Week 3 this time)

September 28th, 2009, 1:33 am by Matt Wiley
Frank Gore was carted off against the Vikings.

Frank Gore was carted off against the Vikings.

After last week’s performance (207 yards and two touchdowns) I thought I was had sold Frank Gore short in the offseason. After he was injured against the Vikings I remembered that he has never had a 10-touchdown season.

Philadelphia’s Brent Celek and DeSean Jackson have combined for 504 yards receiving and four touchdowns … Indianapolis’ much more heralded duo Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark have 609 yards and four touchdowns. Not bad for the Eagles when you consider two of the three games have been with Kevin Kolb at quarterback.

I am just about ready to jump on the Vernon Davis bandwagon after his  seven reception, 96 yard two touchdown performance. Hasn’t everyone been burned by his potential at least once already in their fantasy career? Are you ready to trust him? I think I am.

Did you know that Baltimore’s Joe Flacco has attempted 104 passes this season - New Orleans’ Drew Brees has thrown 97.

The demise of Willie Parker in Pittsburgh was a little premature. Did you fall for it? Parker had 25 carries in the loss to the Bengals while Rashard Mendenhall and Mewelde Moore combined for one carry.

Denver’s Eddie Royal has six catches for 42 yards this season. Over the final five games of last year he averaged 6.7 catches and 61 yards per game.

The Bengals’ Cedric Benson leads the league in carries and there is no reason he should get less than the 22.0 he is getting per game now.

The Packers and Texans are having a hard time stopping the run.

St. Louis’ Kyle Boller only completed 16 of 31 passes, but he did throw two touchdowns after Marc Bulger was injured.

One week after a great 10 catch performance, Miami’s Ted Ginn Jr. was held without a reception. The Dolphins might be without Chad Pennington in their next game and Ginn not being involved Sunday wasn’t a good sign.

The Browns have scored only one offensive touchdown this season - and that was after the game was already our of reach in Week 1.

Tampa Bay didn’t even try to run against the Giants. Carnell Williams and Derrick Ward combined for seven carries for 10 yards.

What have you learned so far this season?

Things I learned from the second Sunday of the season …

September 21st, 2009, 12:55 am by Matt Wiley
Willis McGahee has spent a lot of time in the end zone lately.

Willis McGahee has spent a lot of time in the end zone lately.

Baltimore’s Willis McGahee looks to be this year’s No. 1 touchdown vulture. I was hoping it was going to be Tennessee’s LenDale White two years in a row.

Seattle is only as good as Matt Hasselbeck and on a side Seahawks note - Edgerrin James isn’t even a solid No. 2 back on an NFL team anymore - much less a fantasy team.

The Giants and Eli Manning have passed more than they have ran so far this season.

Torry Holt is not going to be happy losing and he is not going to be happy not getting the ball in Jacksonville.

The Patriots offense needs Wes Welker. I am not ready to jump ship on New England after one game - but there seemed to be trust issues with the receivers.

Buffalo’s Fred Jackson should be the featured back when Marshawn Lynch returns.

The Redskins’ offense is decent at moving the ball for one 20-yard line to the other, but they need to score touchdowns.

The Eagles serviceable backup quarterback and it isn’t Michael Vick or Jeff Garcia.

After 18 career starts Matt Ryan has 21 touchdowns and 12 interceptions. After 18 career starts Peyton Manning had one more interception than touchdowns (31/32).

As bad as my fantasy teams have been - it is still only Week 2 and I have time to recover.

What I learned from Week 1

September 14th, 2009, 12:44 am by Matt Wiley
Tampa Bay's Byron Leftwich passed for 276 yards and a touchdown in the opener.

Tampa Bay's Byron Leftwich passed for 276 yards and a touchdown in the opener.

Ok, who thought Byron Leftwich and Kyle Orton would outscore Peyton Manning and Kurt Warner in fantasy this weekend? The important thing to remember after the first week of the season is to not overreact.

Here are a few observations to keep an eye on:

Willie Parker (19 yards rushing with 0 scores) might not be the Steelers top rushing option for long.  Ben Roethlisberger (43 attempts for 363 yards) should benefit in fantasy from the poor running game.

Jake Delhomme (73-0-4) might not be the Panthers starting quarterback for long. Steve Smith (3-21-0) will struggle as long as Delhomme is pulling the trigger. The Panthers are only going to go as far as the running game (DeAngelo Williams (37-1) takes them.

Gary Kubiak might not be the Texans coach for long. The offense was brutal - ask any Andre Johnson/Steve Slaton owners. Johnson had 35 yards - Slaton had 52.

Thomas Jones (20-107-2) still can get it done on the ground for the Jets.

Nate Burleson (7-74-1) looked healthy in Seattle.

Tony Romo  (353-3-0) did just fine without Terrell Owens.

The Redskins are going to be tough to run up the middle on with the addition of Albert Haynesworth. Brandon Jacobs had 46 yards on 16 carries - 2.9 a carry.

Sorting out an earlier post on receiver depth charts …

September 5th, 2009, 6:14 pm by Matt Wiley

Results of receiver battles from the weekend:

Oakland: Javon Walker vs. Johnnie Lee Higgins for No. 3 - possibly No. 2 Winner: Walker

Miami: Davone Bess vs. Greg Camarillo vs. Brian Hartline for No. 3 possibly No. 2 Winners: Bess and Camarillo.

Indianapolis: Austin Collie vs. Pierre Garcon for No. 3 Winner: Collie

Cleveland: Josh Cribbs vs. Mohamed Massaquoi vs. Mike Furrey vs. Brian Robiskie for No. 2 and No. 3 receiver Winner: ??? The Browns have not officially named a starting QB yet, so receiver will be a surprise also. A rotation is likely.

Washington: Malcom Kelly vs. Devin Thomas for No. 2 receiver (Antwaan Randle El we see plenty of action) Winner: Kelly

Tennessee: Kenny Britt vs. Lavelle Hawkins for No. 2 (with Nate Washington out) and mainly No. 3 Winner: TBD

Carolina: Kenneth Moore vs. Dwayne Jarrett for No. 3 receiver Winner: Moore

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